The acceleration of global warming calls for deep reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across all sectors, with buildings representing one of the largest and most persistent sources. Reducing the environmental impacts of existing dwellings is therefore crucial to reach international targets. This research contributes to that effort by investigating renovation strategies for representative Belgian post-WWII single-family houses using a prospective whole life cycle impact assessment approach.
A specialised Python framework is developed to explore the trade-of between embodied and operational sources of GHG emissions under multiple future socio-economic and technological scenarios. Using the built archetypes identified in Attia et al. 2021 and the Tabula Episcope project, the study evaluates a comprehensive set of renovation solutions combining envelope insulation, heating and ventilation systems upgrade, and renewable energy technologies installation. The Python-based dynamic LCA workflow interfaces Ecoinvent 3.10 with PREMISE 2.2.0, integrating time-dependent background data derived from Integrated Assessment Models and Shared Socio-economic Pathways. This enables a temporally explicit impact calculation of evolving material production and end-of-life processes, and electricity mixes.
Operational energy demand is dynamically simulated and coupled with embodied emissions to assess the whole-life Global Warming Potential (GWP100) of each renovation strategy. The results reveal how the timing and depth of renovation, material choice, and system configuration interact under future scenarios to shape long-term climate burden.
By combining prospective modelling with multi-archetype validation, this research delivers a robust and transferable framework for identifying renovation strategies that remain environmentally effective under uncertainty, supporting evidence-based pathways toward climate-resilient housing transitions.