Switzerland’s commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050 has sharpened attention on low emissions construction materials, particularly timber as a substitute for reinforced concrete. This study examines how increased timber use in residential construction could contribute to the 2050 target and what supply chain adjustments are needed to sustain demand.
To address this, a Swiss building stock model was combined with material flow analysis to project future timber demand and assess supply-side trade-offs. The model applies representative archetypes and required wood volumes to estimate demand until 2050 under three market penetration scenarios. The supply chain model simulates wood flows in energy, construction, and industrial sectors, testing three levers: increased but sustainable harvest, diverting wood from energy to construction, and varying imports & exports at the raw or finished product stage.
Our study highlights three key findings. Firstly, if all new multi-family housing (MFH, currently 8% of timber demand in construction) were built with timber, demand could rise by 24% in 2050. Extending the same assumptions to other uses would increase wood demand by up to 129%. Secondly, domestic supply-side levers could cover the increased demand for MFH, but not the one extended to all uses. Importantly, applying a cascading principle ensures that prioritizing timber in construction does not significantly undermine downstream energy wood availability. Thirdly, when demand exceeds domestic supply potential, imports become unavoidable. In such cases, importing raw roundwood (6.5 million m3) yields superior environmental outcomes compared to finished timber products (4 million m3), by lowering supply chain emissions and creating additional cascading benefits from processing residues.
These findings highlight both opportunities and limits of scaling up timber construction. Meeting ambitious growth scenarios will require policy support, investment in industrial transformation capacity, increased use of hardwood species, incentives to reorient wood use from energy toward construction, and targeted imports.